Replies to post #225396 on Biotech Values

[IanFromSI]

Doesn't this suggest that RVNC won't survive for very long after getting an FDA approval for RT002?

Vantage values AGN’s Botox franchise at $46.1B (scan down):

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/data-insights/other-data/abbvergan-numbers

Its market cap is less than $400M; if it could capture only 10% of the Botox market, it's value to big pharma, PFE included, is more than 10 times that. It doesn't have the money or the ability to market RT002 on its own, especially against big pharma, so a buyout could easily be made at a very attractive price to existing shareholders.

Today's gain, while biotech was retreating, and reversing RVNC's trend would seem to suggest that the market thinks a takeout is possible, if not probable.

[DewDiligence]

(RVNC)—Amusing twitter discussion of how people looked in the mid 20th century or thereabouts:

People in the mid-20th century (and earlier) *did* generally look older sooner than people today:

—More smoking;
—More unprotected UV exposure;
—No botulinum toxin and modern dermal fillers.

Disclosure: Long $RVNC.

— Roy Friedman (@DewDiligence) December 30, 2019

Follow the thread embedded in Peter’s tweet that I replied to.