Everything you said is about what has happened - what about tomorrow? 20/20 hindsight makes everything simple. The thing is, however, In a few months this drug is likely to be an FDA approved drug generating annual revenues 4-5x today's market cap. If you don't see what is very likely to happen in order to close that disparity, then there is no reason to look at this investment. The worst case is that there is no licensing deals, partnerships or buyout. What we are left with is a company selling a product with a huge margin and large market. That's not a bad situation - for worst case!
As for BP not acting - They are not some single minded entity - they are made up of individuals who may or may not be interested in sticking their necks out. They are not entities that decide these things based on how cheap they can get it for. They look for technologies that fit in their pipeline and do not blow out their current products or investments. The timing and opportunity is a very narrow window and the partner that needs this the most might be in the wrong place, until they must make a move. Imagine the quarterly conf. call for Gilead when an investor calls in and asks how 44% of their revenue is taking a huge hit from a company that was this ignored? A company that they passed on! There will be many Gilead execs out of a job for missing this, and this could be what happens 1st quarter of 2020.
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