I agree that if Iran is struck in the short term it will be Isreal and not the USA that hits first. Then of course we would get drug in to the whole thing. I dont see that the war machines wheels will stop rolling. I just think they wont roll directly into Iran at this time. Israel could possibly change that However.....
How do you think Russia and China will respond to Israel bombing Iran? We agree on what the U.S. wants but I think we lose more and more influence on the world stage every month. As a result what the US wants is less a factor and how the CHina, Russia, Irano coaltion responds is a bigger factor. I dont mean to say the US is the smallest dog on the block. The US is not. Working backwards from the given that Israel does get away with bombing Iran, I can think of believable scenarios.
Israel bombs VERY select spots in Iran showing a great respect for the Chinese flow of Oil and gas and also respect for Moscows interests in Iran. I mean like the flow of oil does not miss a beat. Not sure this is possible, but IF they did it MIGHT work. Why? Moscow gets to make more money rebuilding the power plants again and Israel proves to Iran how much they need Moscow. Moscow sells more surface to air missiles and more Onyx missiles. Moscow goes back to the negociating table and drives a much harder bargain with Iran. Maybe Moscow even makes a backroom deal with Israel to let selective bombing take place. Could go on for quite some time, Moscow letting Israel beat the crap out of Iran until Moscow has beaten the hell out of Iran at the negociating table and Iran is a satellite country of Moscow. It IS in Moscows agenda to netralize Israel but also to dominate the Arab world as well. At least the Arab world directly impacting Moscow. First they use Israel to help subdue Iran then go after Israel.
Those Shahab missile I think are a key factor. They can hit Israel AND they are supposedly as effective as the Onyx missile when used in a surface to air capacity. As far as I know there is not as much real info about on how well the shahab will wipe out the Israeli air force. Wiping a fleet of fighter jets out of the sky is a bigger trick than evaporating an Air craft carrier. Once upon a time the Israeli airforce flew to Iraq bombed nuke plants went home and drank beer with their lunch. Not a plane was touched. Iran is a real contest. Contrary to popular belief the Russians have whipped the west during the cold war era with a pencil and paper pretty badly in spite of its backwards economic system. The Russians were first in Space with sputnik. We beat them to the moon but what practical military significane is that? Certainly not more than EMP which they discovered a decade before we did. Unless the Israeli airforce has moved backed to tube ( which is affected MUCH less by EMP than transistor techonolgy which is basically totally wiped out ) the Iranians might be shooting gold fish in a bath tub if the Russians loan them the technology.
Keep in mind the Serbs shot down the mighty stealth bomber. It was in no way luck. Moscow loaned them the technology to do so. Shooting down the stealth bomber was not the greatest feat of modern science. It flys very slow and anything moving in air at hundreds of miles an hour makes an electrical disturbance. The Russians jammed our GPS systems the first few nights of bombing Iraq. All "smart bombs" only worked as conventional weapons. Colin Powell accused them of it and they never denied it. The diplomatic fall out of that was huge. We wont have Smart bombs to use on Iran IF Moscow DECIDES THEY DONT WANT US TO. Is the Israeli airforce going to want to go into Iran flying in conventional fashion?? Cruise missiles use GPS technology. They wont work if the Russians decide not to let them. Look at what those Anti -tank missiles did in Lebanon. What will the Russian made surface to air missiles do to a conventional bombing flight. So far Moscow has seemed to have worked out practical military hardware for every aspect of this conflict.
Going into Iran is a war between Russaian scientists and Russian arms manufacturing against U.S./ Israeli science. Israel will have to fly in to do the bombing. If they fly back with half of the planes they went in with and bomb the plants effectively Moscow wins and Israel and Iran lose. I think Moscow could live with that. If they go in and get plucked out of the sky before they can hit their targets we will be talking about a new kind of "new world order".
Short term you could be right. Israel might fly in and bomb and drag us in. Intermediate and long term I gotta agree with george. Israel only has one ACE, big nukes. Short term I think the gold and oil markets will tell us what might happen.
I lean towards Israel does not bomb but I aint bettin on that. I will be betting on what the gold and oil markets tell us. As Zeev says somebody always knows.
UNfortunately we are going to know the answers to these questions all to soon.
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