Replies to post #225122 on Biotech Values

[flatlander_60048]

Grail Liquid Biopsy

The prices in NGS oncology assays including liquid biopsy are falling quicker than TRUMP can impose a new tariff. There are a lot of competitors and payers are pushing price reductions. I think there is a race to the bottom with the winners getting high volume at low reimbursement rates.

Between GRAIL, Foundation, Guardant, Resolution, Invitae Corporation ... I can't keep track of all the players in this field. I like BCART for its ability to reduce labor, reagents, Turnaround time, and the fact that the results are rendered at low cost at the point of biopsy. I think the clinics will figure out that they can bill the assays out and get reimbursed at a significant profit. This can help drive uptake once Idylla goes from Research Only to approved for clinical diagnostic purposes (as it is in the EU). There are few competitors in the Sample to Results Fast TAT oncology IVD product space.

If I have an error in my reasoning I don't mind if someone points it out.

Have a good weekend.

FL

[DewDiligence]

GRAIL starts clinical trial to test liquid-biopsy diagnostic for early-stage cancer in randomly enrolled subjects:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200218005577/en

GRAIL, Inc., a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early, when it can be cured, today announced the initiation of the PATHFINDER Study. A prospective, multi-center study, PATHFINDER marks the first time GRAIL’s test results will be returned to healthcare providers and communicated to participants to help guide appropriate diagnostic workup for more than 50 cancer types.

Initial PATHFINDER health system partners include Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Intermountain Healthcare, Mayo Clinic, Oregon Health & Science University, and Sutter Health with plans to expand to additional partners. The first participants have been successfully enrolled.

GRAIL aims to enroll 6,200 participants who will be followed at least 12 months. (Note that I didn’t say, “6,200 patients.”)