No problem, Deuce. I started out fighting this rally because I don't think the future profits are going to meet expectations. I had to take a step back and rethink because that obviously wasn't working.
Looking back, there was the four-year cycle that came to an end last October, as well as the historical parallel with the late 20's to early 30's period, which saw a similar 50% retrace. There's also some Elliot Wave stuff thrown in to the mix. I am using all that as my working hypothesis right now.
If we get that 50% retrace, I'll be a happy camper. I wouldn't say that I'll go 200% short at that point, but I'll definitely be looking short side more than long.
Longer-term, I still think the bear has more to go in terms of time. Some stuff I'm reading suggests that we need to have a secular bear at least .382 times as long as the secular bull was to clear out all the excesses. That takes us through some time in 2006.
I think a lot of folks on this thread have the right outlook longer term. However, I remember back at the beginning of 1999 when Japan looked like crap, maybe even worse than what we do now, and their market rallied a ton during that year. I think of this rally as the same kind of animal, based on false premises. Can't fight the tape, though.
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