Somewhat agree. It will be a modified Moelis plan that will likely have significantly less future price appreciation for Commons.
The original Moelis Blueprint was almost 2 years ago. The only way to get to those projected numbers was if the GSEs had started raising and retaining capital within their projected time frame. Even the updated Moelis Blueprint is getting long in the tooth now.
My guess is, Commons will have to take a beating in order for the GSEs to raise the necessary capital within the next 12-18 months.
Commons may still see my target range of $5-7, but it's looking less and less likely as time passes. With each passing month without capital retention, you can knock $0.25-$0.50 off my range.
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