I WOULD disagree with one thing you've said ---- I think the stock market IS climbing a wall of worry and most of the individual investors do not trust this market and have NOT participated in this run since March. That is one reason I think this rally will last longer and go further than many on this board think.
on the other hand, most individual investors have been councilled throughout the bear to hang in there and not to sell their stocks. so i'd think they already have a huge stake in this market, which many still see as being 'underwater', whether it is or not. the question becomes: do they move money out of bonds funds, and do they change their allocations? or do they sell? as a random watcher of cnbc, i've been hit enough times by their "public service announcement", telling companies that they should hire an advisor for their employees to help persuade them to rebalance their 401k allocations into equities. the cynic in me says, heck, why didn't you tell them this last year, when it made sense? and then, of course, there are the pension funds which should be reallocating the other way, from equities into bonds (opposite to what they did last 2 winters) ...
There has been absolutely NO selling pressure in this market
since mid-March.
yup. i'd suspect not until they'll get their long term cap gains.
see no reason to hold bond positions in what is now the beginning of a secular bear market in bonds.
just read something to contradict this recently ... hmm, i'll have to find it ... but it also concurred that the bond top was in. again, i was early on that and exited bond funds in april or may.
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