My point: if you base your investing decisions solely (or even primarily) on valuations, you will consistently be seimming upstream. You can rail on about valuations all you wish, but as long as investors are willing to assume the risk of chasing overvalued junk, the market heads higher.
gee, did i say this? this is why i have a (large) long term portfolio and a (smaller) trading portfolio. longer term i behave differently than shorter term. e.g. i took an 8% position in gold miners starting in dec 01, and increased that over time, sold half on the runup in may 02, and then bought dips since that time, bringing me up to a 60% position in early september; sold to go down to 30% position at the open on 9/9, though i'm back to 35% right now, and will probably take that down to a more prudent position - depending on how the stocks behave over the next couple weeks.
on the shorter term, i'll play the trend, but i don't need to trust it. i don't want to *buy* intel at $29. but if i think someone will buy it from me for $32, i'll hold it for a while. but only with stops and only for a short time. ya know, its kinda like being invited to a cool frat party. i'm the type that would go, but have one beer in my hand the whole night. true, i don't fully partcipate and kinda feel out of place as everyone gets more and more drunk; but at least i don't spend the morning hugging the toilet.
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