Replies to post #302402 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[JohnSamuel]

Gallup and others like Newsweek, NBC tracking polls, CBS, ABC, NYT and WP all did great at predicting the 2016 results:

"It’s not over ‘til it’s over, V.2: Yes, Trump might be happy about one poll that puts him one point ahead, but perhaps he should take a look at this Moody’s Analytics model. The model, which has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1980, predicts that Clinton will win next week. More specifically, the model forecasts that she’ll take 332 electoral votes, while Trump will receive 206. Swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Florida are all set for Democratic victories, according to the model, which is based on three economic factors and three political factors.

Remember: Just seven days to go until the election."

Truth be told they just had no real clue and probably won't in 2020 either ... jmho

[fuagf]

"In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%. Some of the more challenging states to win from among this group, based on that approval rating, would be Texas (41%); Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (all at 42%); and Arizona and Florida (43%). Trump won all of those states in 2016, and thus it is certainly possible that he can do so again. But he clearly has a lot of ground to make up in those states to get close enough to 50% that he can finish with more electoral votes nationwide than the Democratic candidate."

Your link - https://news.gallup.com/poll/247004/trump-job-approval-higher-states-2018.aspx?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=o_social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=