For 1}: Males sense since Trump has wanted to get out of the shutdown since before Limbaugh, Hannity and other talked him out of it. And for the other reasons you give
"1) He will declare a national emergency knowing full well that it won’t happen. The reason he would do this is to get the Buzz Feed story off the front pages and off all of the twitter feeds."
For 2): Makes sense for the reason given above and for the reasons you give.
"2) He will cave to Pelosi because he really really wants to give the SOTU address. He will never miss an opportunity to speak about himself on prime time TV"
You're wise to not be a betting person. I know from some 64 years of betting, including some 30+ years of reckless gambling you have saved yourself a substantial sum.
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