Don't mind me, I'm just butting in, but YOU summed it up quite well.
We have to draw an imaginary line. One end of the line is what would happen if everyone acted correctly, and responsibly. The opposite end of the line is if evil was unabated. Look around your country and give it a DOUG SCORE, pertaining to the general morality of the players/powerful people involved. Go back to your imaginary line put a value of recovery at each end of the line which would coincide with the morality coefficient (From worst to best). Put a dot on the line which equalls the DOUG SCORE Now you have the pretty good recovery guesstimation.
Many people here are very good at prognosticating the recovery amount, what will go to escrows, what will eventually end up in COOP, but they may be somewhat discounting the ability of the criminal element.
The nice thing though is what you have said in the past, that this opportunity would not even be possible, in a way, without the crooks.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!