Replies to post #152273 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[deuce bigalow]

Deuce, interesting that you watch the penny stocks for guidance if this run is over<<<<

The bulls should have paid attention to the level of penny stock participation in both spring-summer of 98 and most importantly 99 and 1Q 2000, it's a huge indicator of exhuberance, but we are coming off a huge bear trough, and exhuberance in pennies at this point can only point to it tops - some of the penny stocks that were created in july-october 02 are once in a lifetime buys, kind of like John Templeton buying up slews of penny's at the outbreak of WWII, of course you need some luck to get the right ones, but templeton took the sling-shot approach and bought a huge basket, the winners outshined the losers,

there is no evidence right now that we are still in the bear market that started in 2000 (and maybe you could start it in some respects in 97 or 98), and there is a lot of evidence that we are in a bull market, who cares if it's a cyclical bull market or a secular bull market,

it's definately NOT a bear market,



>>>IF the $rut breaks over 525 then we may be in a new bull market but if it fails there again then we just had a rally within a bear market.<<<<

I've been watching the small caps like a hawk, we are at resistance, and i do count elliot-waves, but they are subjective, it's easy to see a five wave top, when you are only at wave 3 of 3, it looks like the next move up should be 5 of 5 from the march lows, but there is no evidence from the option buyers that's the case right now.

I may seem bullish, but i am just as skeptical as any of the bears on this thread, but the price bars are reality, not your perceptions of what should be.

but I KNOW the market is not rational, and I don't bury myself with graham and dodd market views,

We still may be in a bubble, and the correction off the 2000 top may only be a bull market correction and we may reach irrational exhuberant heights greater than that of 2000,

the United States is in a unique position in world politics and economy, more so than the Roman Empire, the Spanish Empire or the British Empire,

who knows how high is high?