Replies to post #296419 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[BOREALIS]

Daffy Donald

[ForReal]

Trump ends year in chaos: Syria, Mattis, Afghanistan, shutdown:

..He is standing up for what he believes to be right..

You still are not getting it are you. Trump was not elected as a Republican (although he ran as one) or Democrat. He was elected as a Big Fat Middle Finger to establishment politics. In other words, we are witnessing a political revolution and disdain for what was the status quo.

The transition from status quo to something different is always messy. Take a gander at France, Germany, England or even Sweden. Are you getting it yet?

[BullNBear52]

Does this mean Mexico is not going to pay for his wall?

[fuagf]

Why Afghanistan is more dangerous than ever

"Trump ends year in chaos: Syria, Mattis, Afghanistan, shutdown"

14 September 2018

[...]

Is the Trump strategy making any difference?

It has been a year since President Trump unveiled a new strategy for Afghanistan, vowing that the US would "fight to win". The Trump administration has sought to put pressure on the Taliban in four ways to break the stalemate, roll back the group and eventually force them to sit down for talks with the Afghan government.

1. Maximum military pressure, especially through intensified airstrikes and special forces raids. Several thousand more US military personnel have been deployed, bringing the total on the ground to around 14,000. Last October, the then commander of US forces, John Nicholson, said a "tidal wave of air power" would also be unleashed and that this was "the beginning of the end for the Taliban".

2. Targeting the Taliban's financial sources, including bombing opium production plants which are reportedly taxed by the Taliban and curbing the cash flows to the group from abroad.

3. Publicly questioning the legitimacy of the Taliban's war, including among religious groups.

4. Putting pressure on Pakistan to capture or expel Afghan Taliban leaders allegedly based on its soil.



But these efforts have largely failed:

* The intense military pressure has slowed the Taliban's territorial expansion and many Taliban fighters (including a few important commanders) have been killed over the past year. But the group has managed to hold its territory and retain its operational capacity to carry out deadly attacks across the country. On the other hand, the intensive aerial strikes have been criticised for causing civilian casualties.

* Despite the bombing of drug labs, the Taliban don't appear to be facing a financial crisis. In fact evidence on the ground suggests their wealth has grown.

* Islamic scholars have held various meetings, including in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, during which the violence in Afghanistan was condemned and the Taliban were asked to enter into peace talks with the Afghan government. But the Taliban simply denounced these as being part of an "American process" to justify Washington's war.

* The Trump administration has taken a tough approach with Pakistan and suspended security assistance and aid. Islamabad, which denies helping the Taliban, has said it is ready to help start an Afghan peace process. But there are few signs of a paradigm shift in Pakistan's Afghanistan strategy.

Counting the cost of Trump's air war in Afghanistan
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44282098

Why are more troops going to Afghanistan?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44967531

What's driving the war?

There are five major factors responsible for the intensification of the Afghanistan conflict.

1. Both sides are trying to break the stalemate in their favour. Each side wants to increase its influence and seize more territory.

2. There are questions about the effectiveness of the US strategy and the lack of policy clarity since 2001. Tens of thousands of Taliban fighters have been killed, injured or captured since 2001, but their insurgency is not showing any signs of weakness. A decade ago, the US and Afghan governments estimated that there were around 15,000 insurgents in Afghanistan. Today, the estimated number of militants exceeds 60,000.

3. The emergence of the Islamic State's Khorasan branch in Afghanistan and Pakistan has taken the level of violence and brutality to new heights. The new group has claimed some of the deadliest attacks, mostly on civilian targets in urban centres.

4. As the idea of peace talks has gained momentum, the Taliban want to maximise their leverage and speak from a position of strength at the negotiating table.

5. The increasing tension between the US and regional players - especially Pakistan, Russia and Iran - is also having a negative impact. American and Afghan officials have accused these three countries of supporting the Taliban, which they deny.

[...]

* Is Russia arming the Afghan Taliban?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41842285

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45507560

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Afghanistan Events of 2017
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/afghanistan