Replies to post #222641 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Rationale for owning RVNC (addendum to #msg-144655043)

…it's a little shocking that RVNC is still 35% below its yearly high.

The adjective I would use is enticing.

The rationale for owning RVNC laid out in #msg-144655043 still pertains, and we can now add the following items:

• The enterprise value (at today’s $24.91 close) is only $810M, based on 41.2M fully-diluted shares (#msg-144654911) and 9/30/18 pro forma cash of about $220M (#msg-145252976).

• The $30M up-front payment from Fosun Pharma (#msg-145245703) makes it less likely that RVNC will seek to raise capital before submitting the RT002 BLA in 1H19. By the time RVNC submits the BLA, the stock price will presumably be higher, diminishing the dilution from the financing transaction.

• Based on the SAKURA-3 database of almost 4,000 injections for the treatment of glabellar lines that was released today, the risk that some kind of RT002 safety problem will turn up in aesthetic indications is now vanishingly small.

Bottom line: RVNC is an even more compelling buy now than it was one month ago when I posted the analysis in #msg-144655043.