Short term rooster - Loser: individual taxpayers — in the long term
The tax cut for individuals will slowly decrease over time — and end altogether in 2025.
As Matthews explains, the thresholds for individual tax brackets are adjusted according to chained CPI, a lower measure of inflation than standard CPI, which is used currently. This will increase tax revenue over time by pushing people into higher tax brackets.
Then in 2025, the individual tax relief in the Republican tax bill expires altogether. This is due to a Senate budget rule that restricts the cost of the tax bill to $1.5 trillion. Republicans decided to sunset nearly all the individual tax cuts in order to make the corporate tax cuts permanent.
The result will be a tax increase in 2027 for more than half of all Americans — 53 percent, according to an analysis from the Tax Policy Center.
Loser: fiscal conservatism
The corporate tax cut, along with the bill’s other tax cuts, is expensive. The tax bill costs $1.46 trillion over 10 years — or roughly $1 trillion when adjusted for economic growth. Either way, it’s a substantial impact on the deficit.
You’d expect conservatives who have spent their careers decrying the dangers of the national debt to shudder at such an estimate. But not so much.
Fiscal conservatives and deficit hawks seem to have changed their tune, all in the name of massive tax cuts that would primarily benefit the wealthy.
“Sometimes you have to go into a little bit of debt to make your business stronger,” Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) said when the House was passing the budget, which gave Republicans a green light to go ahead with a partisan tax bill.
In their budget reconciliation instructions, Republicans allow for this bill to carve a $1.5 trillion hole in the deficit over the first 10 years. Due to Senate rules, the bill ultimately cannot increase the deficit any more after the 10-year mark. To meet this requirement, Republicans end almost all the individual tax cuts in 2025, and make the corporate tax cuts permanent.
But House Speaker Paul Ryan says Republicans have every “intent” to renew the individual tax cuts in 2025, to ensure taxes don’t go up for individual Americans. It’s up to whoever sits in Congress in the future.
If Congress does in fact renew the individual tax cuts, the actual impact on the deficit would be much greater than the current estimates. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that expiring the individual tax cuts in the bill hides between $570 billion and $725 billion of potential costs. In other words, the bill could actually increase the deficit by $2 trillion to $2.2 trillion.
Republicans continue to insist that their tax bill will lead to unprecedented economic growth to make up for these costs, but there’s some dubious math that goes into that expectation, including a very rosy calculation for economic growth. The Treasury Department even included legislation that hasn’t even been introduced — like an infrastructure bill — in its analysis of the tax bill’s impact on economic growth.
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