ardent...
What you note is more in line with what my sources are telling me and what my macro view suggests for the economy. I remain convinced that there is no sustainable recovery in store for the economy and especially for the chip and equipment sector. As I have been saying, I expect a bounce because of over optimistic Christmas inventory buildups, but a number of inventory levels are already high and climbing.
If the Holiday selling season is no better than I expect, the overhang of unused inventory will hit hard in Q1 and Q2 of 2004, helping to send us into recession and insuring many more rounds of "one time chargeoffs" as companies write down inventory so they can later sell it using a cost basis of zero.
Nice game they play, a total lie about corporate earnings, but it works because everyone wants to believe it. It is still a lie though.
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