Replies to post #191145 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[xoma4578]

Glad your husband is recovering well.
Great work on these calculations.

Thank you.

[Doc logic]

sentiment_stocks,

Now add in data from the TLR agonist trial and pseudos to surprise and the market reaction will be uncontainable depending on how well news is disseminated. I sure hope Fox will get back on board to take the lead if others are kept in check. Best wishes.

[j e d]

The problem with this:

"That seems pretty extraordinary given that includes both treatment and control patients."

is that the issue has always been that it doesn't matter how the population as a whole does---it's whether the ITT population does much better than control. So, if say 28% ITT live to 36 months, that's great, but it means nothing if ~25% of the control also lived to 36 mo.

I'm long on this, but I don't get the hype around these numbers, since none of them can parse out control and treated. Comparing to historical SOC, sure they look great, but we all know we selected candidates different than the general population.

[flipper44]

So glad to here everything is on the upswing. That was an attempt at tennis humor. Anyway, it really is a relief to know. Please keep us updated. My thoughts are with both of you.

I'll read your calculations more fully later.

[sukus]

Great post!

[Kam8]

Very happy that your husband is fine now.

[meirluc]

Senti, here are some math corrections but first I would like to tell you that it is great to hear that your husband has made such a good recovery. Wishing him and you the best health and happiness for the years to come.

Your work as usual is outstanding. There are a few minor corrections below. Also I wonder why you used the 18, 24, and 30 months intervals. For example, you calculate the survival of patients who survived 18-24 months as if all were alive only 18 months when in reality they are spread between 18 and 24 months. Same with the 24 and 30 months interval. Should it not be the midpoint of the intervals such as 21, 27 and 33 months?

Here are some of the corrections. I hope I am right as I usually make more mistakes than you. none are major corrections.

1. In the met+ group the chance of survival at 12 months is 97.6% and at 24 months it is 67.7%. The difference is 29.9% not 27.8%.

2.Regarding the 31 met+ patients between 24-30 months. 89.44% X 31 =28 (27.7) not 25.

3. 44 already lived to 36 months, 29 methylated should live to 36 months = 73 methylated patients? (29 methylated and 44 with unknown methylation status?

4. Regarding the met- group, 86.4% live to 12 months and 32.1% to 24 months = 54.3% attrition rate. 54.3%/12 months = 4.5% per month. 4.5% X 6 months = 27%. 73% of these met- patients make it to 24 months?

[eagle8]

Hi sentiment,

I'm very glad to hear your husband is doing well !

All the best to you and him.

[flipper44]

If all events came from the 70 alive over 18 months from March 2017 to September 2018, and the event rate averaged out to 1.33 during that time, it’s another way to get to 90 alive at 36 month milestone. However, you probably don’t need that low of event rate, because a few events would likely come from the 38 alive post 36 months and not all from the 70 below it. Moreover, when Dr. B said 2 per month, he really meant 2% per month, which also means a declining event rate. All in all 90 very possible at 36 month milestone.

Also consider we are really probably talking about 89/293 is 30%, because the first 38 seem more and more like they received a pre-phase iii therapy.

[H2R]

Very happy for you and your husband Senti!
Glad he is out of the woods :)

[doingmybest]

sentiment stocks, thx for the charting work and more importantly continued best wishes to your husband and yourself, working through his recovery, very good news. DMB

[beartrap12]

Senti, I’m glad to hear your husband is doing well. And thanks for all the incredible research and math you’ve done to help us with our understanding of this trial. We can not thank you enough.

[CaptainObvious]

Is like to echo everyone's sentiment (pun intended). Glad to hear everything's looking up, and thanks for all your efforts!

[meirluc]

" Odds of living to 24 months is 32.1% and odds of living to 36 months is 11%. Difference is 21.1% of those patients will die by 36 months and 78.9% will live. 23X78.9%=18 unmethylated patients"

I believe that you are not losing here 21% of the 23 patients but about 2/3 of them. The calclation in my opinion should be 23X11%/32.1% = 7.88 or about 8 met- patients instead of 18 remaining alive.

[meirluc]

Senti, major correction for post 191145. I think I got it right this time.

If there were 22 met+ patients at 18 months and one is asking how many are expected to be alive at 24 months, would it not be appropriate to look at curve b (publication). The survival for met+ at 18 months is about 81% (268 of 331 patients) and going down to 66.7% or 220.7 patients at 24 months (curve b and Table 2). So from 18 to 24 months we have a reduction of 14.3% of 331 or 47.3 patients.

Now a 47.3 patients loss from 268 to 220.7 is 17.6% not 14.3% (the % loss from 331) and we will end up at 24 months with 220.7 patients (268-47.3 The calculation that gets us there would be
66.7%X100/81%=82.3% (the survival %). 268X82.3%=220.6 (pretty close to 220.7)

Now applying this to the 22 patients going from 18-24 months we do the parallel calculation namely: 66.7%X100/81%=82.3% (survival %) 82.3%X22=18.1 patients left at 24 months from the previous 22.

Utilizing 21, 24, 27, and 33 months as the midpoints of the 6 months time spans 18-24, 24-30 and 30-36, the calculation method above and recalculating the survivor number for every increasing 6 month time frame, I estimated that of the 149 patients processed before 36 months (3/14), about 25 met+ and 9 met- will makr it to 36 months. With the previous 44 that would be a total of only 78 patients. If enough of them survive to 5 years that would be enough for approval especially if most of them are met+ then the approval for that category seems very strong. Also I hope that the last contingent of 108 will surprise us and will do better than my calculations indicate.

I will now proceed to detail the calculations and estimates in a post to follow.