NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[flipper44]

If all events came from the 70 alive over 18 months from March 2017 to September 2018, and the event rate averaged out to 1.33 during that time, it’s another way to get to 90 alive at 36 month milestone. However, you probably don’t need that low of event rate, because a few events would likely come from the 38 alive post 36 months and not all from the 70 below it. Moreover, when Dr. B said 2 per month, he really meant 2% per month, which also means a declining event rate. All in all 90 very possible at 36 month milestone.

Also consider we are really probably talking about 89/293 is 30%, because the first 38 seem more and more like they received a pre-phase iii therapy.