Replies to post #191653 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[sentiment_stocks]

If there were 22 met+ patients at 18 months and one is asking how many are expected to be alive at 24 months, would it not be appropriate to look at curve b (publication).

Yes - that is the curve I was looking at only I was using the latest curve b with the censored and event counts on it. That’s how we arrive at 22 meth+ patients.

The survival for met+ at 18 months is about 81% (268 of 331 patients) and going down to 66.7% or 220.7 patients at 24 months (curve b and Table 2). So from 18 to 24 months we have a reduction of 14.3% of 331 or 47.3 patients.

I may be missing something here as I’m not sure how you arrived at 268 of 331 for the meth+ patients (I thought that’s what you were talking about?). The meth+ patients in the trial were 131 total. So you lost me here as to what you were calculating. I’d like to follow you, but I need some clarity at this point, when you get the chance.

Thanks ~ :)

[Rootjim]

meirluc your numbers are are most likely fairly close. Dr B. had an event rate last year of 2 per month. From 100 patients -(14x2)=72 alive now. With a slowing event rate, your numbers would be spot on. However at this point longs are hoping for an additional home run. Which would be improvements to DCVax-L and a drastic slowdown in the event rate. None the less the horses are entering the home stretch one way or another. IMO