NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

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You guys and gals are all AMAZING!

Thank you so much for all of your very kind wishes. They were like a rock for me when I was going through all that. My husband is doing really well and is back home. We’re both so glad about how well he is doing and feeling as it just seemed so awful and scary such a short time ago.

I’m really glad to hear about AMRN’s results and how well that has turned out for those that stuck with it. For all I know, my husband will get that prescribed soon enough for him along with the aspirin regimen they have him on now. Congratulations to Marzan and all the others that hung in there! And welcome to GD. Thanks for bringing some of your winnings over here.

I’ve been following the NWBO board pretty regularly, but didn’t really want to post anything without first thanking everyone for their great words of support. Plus I wanted to be able to say how really well he was doing and I feel like I can state that now. :)

I had been working on some calculations based on those numbers from those charts so many of us worked together on, and what I’d figured from those calculations is shown below. It's very boring and tedious, I'll admit. I can hardly stay awake when I went over them again! :)


44 already had lived to 36 months
29 methylated should live to 36 months
18 unmethylated should live to 36 months

approx. 91 total patients should live to 36 months or 27% of the trial’s enrollment.

That seems pretty extraordinary given that includes both treatment and control patients.


These numbers are based on the survival odds given for the patients based on the data from the 3/17 journal.

I can see that we’ve deduced that those original 38 patients (very few of whom it seems made it to 36 months) were enrolled while the trial was a P2. So if there was any sort of change in the production, “art”, or whatever you want to call it (lol) done after those initial 38 patients (the vanguard patients) entered the trial — then it would seem these numbers I listed above would only improve.

I would also point out that DCVax-Brain evolved to DCVax-L around that time, and L was initially test in a P1/2 at Penn U in the ovarian trials. I of course may be incorrect, but when I was arguing with Pyrr, some may remember that I’d suggested that there may have been an updated change to the production at that time.

I’d worked that out by using the numbers given from the journal on survival odds for meth and unmeth in Table 2.

https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-018-1507-6

MGMT Methylated (from journal):
12 months: 94.5%
24 months: 66.7%
36 months: 46.4%

MGMT Unmethylated (from journal):
12 months: 86.4%
24 months: 32.1%
36 months: 11.0%

Since we are all assured then that the numbers we have now from 3/17 are very close to accurate, we could then calculate from those patients who were still alive at that time, how many would make it to 36 months. And again, if there has been some sort of improvement in the “art” of the DC production - i.e. Tangential Flow Filtration (TFF) - or something else, that resulted in producing more dendritic cells, then these survival percentages would likely improve because the ones from the journal contain the 38 patients of the 182 (21%) patients that had been enrolled in the trial for 36 months or longer.
We should also remember that it would seem that the final 31 patients who entered the trial from August to November 2015 were all treatment. If that is indeed the case, then that should also cause the percentages to improve, because those 3/17 percentages were based on a 2:1 treatment to control ratio.

Since almost all of these censored patients had already made it to 18 months, their odds of making it to 36 months increased as well. You can’t apply odds to them living to 36 months as if they had just entered the trial at one month, because once you’ve made it to 18 months, you’ve got a much better chance of making it to 36 months.

So I calculated the odds of each set of patient making it from say 18 months to 24 months. Then I took those who had reached 24 months, added in those who had already made it to 24 months, and calculated their odds of making it to 30 months. Then I took the number who would likely make it to 30 months, added in those who had made it to 30 months, and calculated their odds of making it to 36 months.

Of course, it’s possible I made a mistake, so please anyone so inclined can correct my numbers (I make mistakes regularly around here so I’m accustomed to it). Below is how I arrived at those numbers, for anyone wanting to look at it or correct me.

There were 2 at 17 months and 20 between 18 and 24.
Since 17 is so close to 18 months, let’s just combine the patients
So 22 methylated patients at 18 months.

Methylated at 12 months chances of living are: 97.68%
Methylated at 24 months chances of living are: 67.7%

Difference is 27.8%

To determine the monthly attrition, divide 27.8% by 12 months to equal 2.32%

To determine the 6 month attrition, multiply 2.32% by 6 to equal 13.9% of those 22 patients will die by 24 months, and 86.10% will live.

22 of the methylated patients between 17 and 24 months x 86.10%
= 18.94 (19) will live to 24 months.

12 patients were already at 24 months
add the 19 patients who had already survived to 24 months
= 31 patients between 24 and 30 months

Now we would to look at the odds of survival from 24 to 30 months for 31 patients

Methylated at 24 months chances of living are: 67.7%
Methylated at 36 months chances of living are: 46.6%

Difference is 21.1%
Monthly attrition is 21.1 / 12 = 1.76%

To determine 6 month attrition, multiply 1.76 x 6 = 10.56% of 31 patients will die by 30 months and 89.44% will live to 30 months

31 of the methylated patients between 24 and 30 months x 89.44%
= 25.25 (25) will live to 30 months.

7 patients were already at 30 months
add the remaining 25 patients who had survived to 30 months
= 32 patients between 30 and 36 months

Since the same monthly attrition rate of 1.76% would still be in effect, the 6 month attrition rate of 10.56% would still apply. So 10.56% of 32 methylated patients alive at 30 months would die and 89.44% would live to 36. 32 x 89.44% = 29 (28.62) patients

So from all the methylated alive and censored patients (not counting LFTU) at 3/17, 29 should live to 36 months based on the journal’s odds of living for the 182 patients that had been enrolled in the trial for ≥ 36 months and the censored patients alive between those points in time.

44 already had lived to 36 months
29 methylated should live to 36 months
= 73 methylated patients

Now to add in the unmethylated patients.

Applying the same formulas:

18 patients alive from 18 to 24 months
86.4% live to 12 months minus 32.1% live to 24 months = 27.8% attrition rate/12 = 4.53% die p/month x 6 months = 27.18% die and 72.82% live to 24 months

18 x 72.82% = 13 (13.11) unmethylated patients live to 24 months

10 unmethylated patients alive at 24 months already + 13 who live to 24 months = 23 patients alive at 24 months

Odds of living to 24 months is 32.1% and odds of living to 36 months is 11%. Difference is 21.1% of those patients will die by 36 month and 78.90% will live.

23 x 78.90% = 18 unmethylated patients will live to 36 months


So again, if the same percentages from 3/17 apply, then…

44 already had lived to 36 months
29 methylated should live to 36 months
= 18 unmethylated should live to 36 months

approx. 91 should live to 36 months or 27%

7 more patients would make that a 30% survival rate at 3 years, by the way.

And if there was some sort of improvement in production when they went from P2 to P3, then those numbers are likely to improve.

And... if indeed the last 31 patients were all treatment... then those numbers are extremely likely to improve.