Yep
Been there
I do not have a link, but other articles talk about what is the OAS at one year.
I set that as the Top Line vs. the 5 year number from The Oncologist - National Institutes of Health.
BETWEEN the Top line 1 year and OAS at 5 year there is a range, and I prorated that linearly.
And I OFFSET ( if I remember correctly ) the Enrollment date of the patient TO the 1 year OAS top line number ( at one year down the road )
So you have to slide that column of expectation down and then choose your poison what numbers do you think the OAS actually is for SOC.
When you SLIDE it significantly lessens the impact of which SOC numbers you choose even though those are still significant.
As the population in a given month of enrollment decreases there are not much left to continue to exceed the 3 year OAS with, the percentage tops out at whatever 55% of Original for that month ( for 3 years ).
So I would say you are getting close er.