Replies to post #18 on Nortech Systems Inc (NSYS)

[swanlinbar]

Post by Gilead on NSYS "NSYS one thing that could be a touch concerning

I saw this in the 10Q

"Our effective tax rate for the year ended December 31, 2018 is expected to be 65% compared to (18%) for the year ended December 31, 2017. The increase is due mainly to the effects of the tax reform changes that were enacted on December 22, 2017, and the increase in the effective tax rate expected in China."

I'm not sure what their go forward tax rate on expected earnings is but 65% sounds very high. If you assume their go forward tax rates on any earnings for the remainder of the year is say 25% then plugging in some algebra (and assuming I did the math right) you can probably only expect maybe .08 in EPS the back half of the year. That doesn't seem quite right to me given the backlog and given they are more skewed towards medical in their backlog which does have higher margins.

Margins are of course the stickler for them. Had margins been 1% lower last quarter a .14 EPS number would have been more like .04. It could be they are indirectly saying they expect lower margins the back half of the year. If so earnings might be disappointing.