CAMH and BSX
It was exactly two weeks ago that I posted about possibly being in trouble due to CAMH replacing the CEO and announcing it at 4:05 on a Friday. I followed that post with the resume of the new CEO, which was clearly far more impressive than that of the departed CEO. The closing price that Friday was $2.49
As a follow up to those posts, today's close was $2.89. This week was impressive, with a solid move higher on very heavy volume all week. Looks like it wasn't such a bad change at the top.
10nisman, in regards to BSX, here's my very humble opinion: The recalls of ICD's(and alleged cover up at GDT) caused great damage to the industry. The general public has lost much faith in a product they thought would simply save lives. Additionally, the infections at implant site and "false read shocks" have caused great concern. Perhaps the most egregious, but least known, problem with ICD's is the fact that most people who get one WILL NEVER ACTUALLY NEED IT. The big three ICD manufacturers put ICD's in patients whether they needed one or not, and they knew it. MTWA testing has shown for 10 years whether a patient was at risk for SCD or not. Negative reading MTWA shows the patient is not at risk for SCD. Positive, and new research shows that also indeterminate, MTWA reading shows the patient is at risk for SCD, and thus would benefit from drug therapy or ICD implant. Simply relying on LVEF <30% isn't accurate. If you look back to March of this year, when CMS (Medicare decision making division) was accepting public letters for/against their pending decision to cover MTWA testing, the only three letters against were from MDT, STJ and GDT. The ICD manufacturers did not want insurance to pay for a $400 test that may show someone wouldn't benefit from an ICD.
The reality is that the MTWA test is going to greatly increase ICD business once it has universal adoption. 400,000 people die in the US each year from SCD. If all who were "at risk" would take the non-invasive MTWA test, many of these people would be found before dying. An ICD would save these lives in most circumstances (assuming it wasn't a defective ICD, of course). When the MTWA test has universal adoption, sales of ICD's will go way up, and the current strategy of implanting people who don't benefit will be eliminated. Everybody wins. BSX will probably be a good play in the longer term, CAMH is an amazing opportunity right now. Again, all JMHO.
Best regards,
Geoff
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