Replies to post #220227 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

All told, these responses seem unduly bullish, IMO. (ABBV’s 1Q18 HCV sales were $919M; GILD’s 2Q18 HCV sales were $1.00B.)

I was one at the upper level of the poll.

Last three quarters for ABBV HCV sales:

US OUS Total
3Q17 60 216 276
4Q17 214 296 510
1Q18 343 576 919

So QOQ sales were up $409M, or 59.5% last quarter. I clearly don't expect another 59.5% increase, but $300M is clearly possible (32.6%). I have US scripts up 27.5% QOQ, according to BBG. Applying that percentage to US sales in 1Q, one gets $437M, or an increase of $94M. Since GILD reported $542M of US HCV revenue, a ABBV number in the range of $440M sounds about right to me.

But OUS is much more important for ABBV since 62%+ of its HCV revenue is OUS. We really doin't have any visibility there. I really doubt that the OUS sales went down, given the huge ramp last quarter (94.5%), but, even if those sales stay flat, ABBV would have total HCV sales of over $1,010M. My guess is that OUS sales might be up 35-40%, so that puts the total over $1.2B. I expect US sales to hold up in 3Q18, but am afraid that will be the high mark as the total treated starts to go down again.