Q1: I see you conveniently left out revenue from the movie deals (American Animals, Gotti) and any other licensing revenue. I wonder why?
A1: It's a wash, like saying -1 + 1 - 1 = -1. HMNY and partner paid $3 million for American Animals. I previously posted it on Seeking Alpha. I will post the reply here. I project AA to break even. Even if it makes a little more than it cost, MoviePass would be paying movie tickets for most of the revenue, thus creating a wash sales.
I went over the statistics of each movie that were in limited release fashion of 3-5 theaters, and then expanded to hundreds or thousands of theaters. A few things stand out. Big winners generally include the following:
1. Opening during Christmas or Thanksgiving holidays. Strike one for AA.
2. Almost all had viewings per theater that generally go up (positive) the 2nd or 3rd day (one or the other). AA did -1% the second day and -27% the third day. Strike two for AA.
3. Many had high "per theater" values, and higher gross values. A few had similar as AA, but opened later with thousands of screens. AA projected to open around 600 screens? Strike three for AA.
4. Virtually all big hit movies "clicked" with the viewer. They had something the viewer could relate with (i.e. falling in love, war, real-life struggles etc.). Strike four for AA.
After analyzing the winners and losers from 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 for limited release films, I believe AA will do mid single digit millions. From historical facts and numbers, statistically, AA does not have a high probability of being a megastar box office hit. That's like a high school batter, being expected to hit home runs like Babe Ruth. The chances of getting struck by lightning 5 times in a row is higher. They will be lucky to break even. There will not be $100+ million gross like some pumpers on various forums have claimed.
What is possibly skewing the numbers are how many MP subscribers (those who are NOT HMNY shareholders) who actually went to the early showings which MP has to lose money paying for. Additionally, there may be a few shareholders who are also MP subscribers who went out of pure curiosity, or just to "support" the numbers. It remains to be seen how many non-MP subscribers actually will continue to see the movie.
To see different year statistics, simply change the year at the end of the URL. Please analyze the data yourself and don't listen to any pumpers or bashers. As Warren Buffet says, he wins because he does a lot of reading, reading things available to everyone. That includes SEC filings.
Gotti reviews were horrible. Have you read them? I would be surprised if Gotti made more than $500K. If it weren't for MoviePass, maybe it would only make $50K. But since MoviePass is literally paying people to go see it, sure it'll make a little bit more. Again, losing money paing people to go see it... I don't see how that's called "revenue".
Q/P2: I disagree with almost all of your conclusions except possibly the current float amount.
A/P2: I disagree with your disagreement. You provide no data or calculations to counter my claims.
Q/P3: In my opinion, I will add as much as I can at this ridiculous price.
A/P3: Good luck. I warned people when this puppy was in double digit dollars. Only a few people listened. Those that didn't listen, are in total disbelief and regret right now.
Q/P3: I'll be glad to revisit this with you in two months and see who's judgement and DD is correct.
A/P3: Agreed. My posts will be here, as long as the admins don't delete them. Feel free to go through my historical posts. Obviously I'm wrong here and there, but no one can be 100% right 100% of the time. In the stock market, you just need to be right more than you're wrong.
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