Quote: Mavyret is still gaining market share and will likely eclipse the Gilead HCV programs. (my quote) ----------------------------------------------------
Strictly speaking Mavyret was down last week about 1% in the US reports, but the general trend has been growth. I still feel that the worldwide will grow and that it is quite likely to become the #1 program. This should be a good market for several years at least, and China has not yet started. My feeling about China is that the genotype pool and the genetics is quite similar to Japan. It's a good position, IMHO.
Mavyret has exceeded expectations of many/most analysts.
Will that be enough of a watershed event to spur the media and analysts to generate more awareness for ENTA/Mavyret?
Gilead has been very clear to lower expectations for HCV. As close as they come now is to say that they expect things to stabilize in the 2nd quarter. (Which I infer means to become less terrible.) I don't think they would utter that they expect to become #2. They still performed brilliantly, earned a lot and will still earn a lot in years to come.
When (and IF) Mavyret takes #1 position it will be very hard to ignore. IF you track the trajectory it almost seems like a given, but....we will see.
My interest today is earnings and the royalty tiers.
In as much as CEO Luly cannot reveal too much that Abbvie already hasn't we may not get big HCV reveals. We may get insight into other ENTA asset developments or more general comments on the HCV treatment landscape.
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