TJP-
Excellent point about the market and 9-11. However, I am still going to contuinue using shorts as opposed to longs. I'm just not comfortable with longs now.
I was looking at the $INDU chart again and it really is amazing how tight the daily movements have gotten. Except for yesterday's action, we're talking about daily moves around 60 points. That is incredibly tight! It almost reminds me of the effect of an ascending or descending triangle building sideways on a chart. Things will eventually break out in a big way up or down.
I think 'mlsoft' makes a great point when he says that AG can't really throw in the towel at any point. He simply has to keep pumping--as in like "forever." This tells me that the trouble will come from other areas. For example, if China simply refuses to unleash the Yuan (and that's what you would do if you ate with chopsticks), or if the ECB decides to drop interest rates again (which is what you would do if your country needed an incentive to boost spending and exports), a move which AG would be hard-pressed to follow. I suppose there are a million things that could go wrong. With Japan deep in recession, Germany and France dropping into recession and the USA warding off the same fate with "funny money," it is only a question of time before the US consumer cuts back. In the meanwhile, capex won't pick up the slack inasmuch as businesses are still laying off.
Difficult to see how this can have a happy ending. I suppose that business earnings could increase with more payroll cuts, higher productivity and cheaper raw materials costs, but they will be cutting muscle soon and raw materials prices are rising? Just as a simple example, how can PD make romex electrical cable less expensively when copper prices are up 22% over last year? Hmmmmm.
schloss
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