Yes - it is a speculation - but isn’t that most here do? These are called speculations- guesswork as no one here knows what goes inside the company.
However this is more like guesswork based on situation and past experience with his behavior.
Also I did not say the drug failed - I said the results were not impressive. Else Leo would have jumped around, issued 3 PRs one after another, written a blog, given a shout to President, issued another PR telling how he is genius and compared P with Otzela and told us the overall market size for Psoraisis.
Nothing of that happened - so by deduction, the results were not that great.