Replies to post #456507 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Commons_Cancelled]

Mnuchin Dilution Solution, then Preferred Conversion to Commons

The $25s will take the conversion at 10:1 and the $50s will take the conversion at 20:1. This is only after the warrants are exercised, additional dilution is factored in, Commons are trading at ~$1, and the GSEs are released from Conservatorship. Ackman realizes this also, hence the Rotation from Commons to Preferreds.

[Donotunderstand]

Yes
Best to talk in # of common for a par $25 preferred share

the below is from you

The market ratio now sits around 4.3:1. If Moelis offers less than that, the pref holders could just refuse and convert their shares in the market. An equivalent offer now would be just shy of 5:1.

so - you are suggesting - based on the average price of preferred share??? that an offer would likely be ~5 common for one preferred ?

6.40 (FNMAS) divided by 1.45 (common PPS) would be an offer to convert somewhere between 4 and 5 shares of common for one share of preferred (and it could be a forced conversion if done this way as I think the FEDS did at Citibank)

question
if the conversion offer - if it occurs - is based on themarket PPS relationship --- then why bias one way or the other in holdings unless you see a conversion at a discount or premium (and I see any potential conversion being mandated)

(I too own both but more common by a lot due to the unlimited upside but I will be rethinking it as there are other scenarios too )