Replies to post #1155 on Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[Gametheory101]

The problem of calculating probabilities of success or failure lies in the enrollment rate. This is a trial that enrolled over four years. Did 50 participants enroll in April, May, and June, or 15?

Participants could opt for a second shot of Lupron if their PSA levels didn't drop under 1ng. How many of these were enrolled late?

I was focused on the medians and didn't think about waiting for the tails.

All in all, the trial design and enrollment pattern is the same as when Dendreon anticipated data in the spring. Either the company seriously miscaluculated the stats or Provenge is working much better then expected.

For Iwfal to have any estimate as high as 85% success is very encouraging, especially when 40% is the reasonable worst case estimate.

[iwfal]

are you using June 2005 date that the last patients were enrolled but not randomized to Provenge or placebo?

I am assuming that in June 2005 the last patient was enrolled to start Lupron therapy. So the last start of Provenge treatment might be as late as, say, November 2005.