Replies to post #35244 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>Avastin seems to be all the street cares about<

That used to be true, but it’s not true anymore. Herceptin has had an amazing renaissance and Lucentis is the new kid on the block.

I predict there will be more discussion of AMD than of colorectal cancer on today’s CC. Analysts will push hard to get an AMD sales figure for Avastin, but DNA will not accommodate them.

[jbog]

Master,

I mentioned it to you the other day, Everything would be ok except Avastin and that's the killer.


Avastin tracking in-line with our estimates, but below the Street
consensus. We forecast Avastin sales of $439MM vs. the Street
consensus of $457MM. Our statistical IMS sales based forecast has
Avastin on pace to reach roughly $445MM for 3Q. There has been
great concern over the accuracy of secondary sales data in
forecasting for Avastin. IMS has announced that, working with DNA,
any and all DNA product reporting issues are being resolved. Based
on our analysis of Oncology Inc. patient data, total patients on
Avastin has grown by 6.7% for the three months ended August 2006
vs. the three months ended May 2006, indicating a potential $10MM
upside to our Avastin forecast.