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Aiming4

10/10/06 10:17 AM

#1413 RE: gfp927z #1406

Gfp - regarding this comment:

b) The partial lifting of the hold (with dosing restrictions) should delay consumating the BP deal, and this delay could subsequently delay completion of the non-Ampakine in-licensing. This could be a problem if other companies are also interested in acquiring that program and have ready cash.

I think there's a decent chance Cortex is planning on an in-licensing sooner rather than later.

As you mentioned, part of the timing will be driven by when Cortex finds the right drug for Cortex's needs, and how much competitive pressure there is to get the license before another company does.

Looking at the primary reasons Cortex wants a non-ampakine program:

1. Insurance against a serious problem in the ampakine platform, allows the company to survive.

2. Insurance against problems with CX-717, allows the company to make progress on NAD (Non-Ampakine Drug) while a new ampakine is brought up to speed.

3. If NAD is successful and ultimately approved by the FDA, it would likely be Cortex's first source of product revenue.

4. Having NAD to work on will keep Cortex busy and productive after several indications and CX-717 are out-licensed to the BP.

5. A bit nebulous but probably true, once Cortex gets NAD to a Phase III trial, it may improve Cortex's visibility, pps, and ability to raise cash on more favorable terms.

I think the fact that Dr. Stoll takes care to talk about the in-licensing stategy at every opportunity signals that it is near the front of the queue rather than something that is on the back burner for after a BP deal.

If an in-licensing is something Cortex is hoping/planning on doing sooner than later, a financing is almost a foregone conclusion.

The likelyhood of a financing deserves a post by itself, maybe I'll toss some thoughts out tonight for discussion.

Anyone have any thoughts on if/when Cortex might complete a non-Ampakine in-licensing deal?... Aiming4.