Replies to post #146353 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mainehiker]

welcome peace2all

[lee kramer]

Hi peace 2 all: I think I understand your angst. The more things you look at, the more people you listen to, the more confusing things seem to be. I don't have an answer for you, though I will mention my trading "style." I've chosen to view every day as a new market. I trade only during the day and with rare exception I am in cash by day's end. I trade both long and short. You'll find some pretty good traders on this thread; some with a longer term view that might fit your style, others with a much shorter view. If you watch the posts for a while you'll get a sense of traders you might want to read.

[duper_man]

Peace2all, welcome aboard. Here you'll find many who think exactly the way you do. You are obviously not a believer in the monsterous "economic turnaround" we got going on. But even if you are not, before placing your bets please note the direction of the trend and the monetary policy currently pursued by the fed. And if you still want to short this thing cause of these "other secondary reasons", at least honor those stops. Remember that after NAZ first crossed 4000, it went to 5000 and that was with the fed tightening. Had the fed been cuttin rates, NAZ 10K might have been our final high.

Short term "buy the dip w/ tight stop" is the poker game in Al's table. This is reality whether we like it or not. Don't believe me? Look at a chart of the Nasdaq composite. White candles on the daily, weekly, the monthly and the quarterly. New multimonth closing highs accross the board. Everybody sees this and they still try to pick the top. The reason they try is not because they are inexperienced or stupid but because they think they are smarter and that they have superior trading skills than everyone else. That's why trading is harder to play than poker, chess, or any other thinking man's game. Again welcome aboard.

[Zeev Hed]

peace, welcome to our modest abode. May I suggest that you divide your folio into four or five parts. Accumulate stocks that are not "too expensive" but have good long term track record in the last three years despite the bear market. These are stocks that we often refer to here as the "core". Another part you may want to include, are some "orphan value stocks" (there are not many available right now, but they may become available in the next two months again). These are stocks that are selling at discount to book, or cash or both, and you can see future circumstances where the market will rediscover these. Another segment could be stocks which could be used as "swing traders", namely you buy them for a sing profit of from few days to few weeks, hopefully timing the entries near local bottoms and exit near local tops. And another segment you use for volatile stocks (like the Q, and few others mentioned on this thread) which you enter and exit (most of the times) the same day, or day traders. From your post it is clear that you understand the art of using stops, but you may have not learned the art of taking profits when offered. Maybe, if you are planning to day trade, try and put few wins under the belt. To trade well, you need to be in a "winning" mental state, and nothing than few wins is better to achieve such a state. Last, one of my mottos is plan the play and play the plan, and even if the plan is faulty, stick to it (a buying point and two selling points, a stop loss and a profit grab).

I am sure that as you stick around here, many threadsters will add to that primer.

[JLundgren]

Take this board with a grain of Salt!
(Like all boards)

Peace_2_all:

You have gone from RB (which boards are usually made up of Permabulls) to this board which seems to be mostly made up of Permabears. Why not go with both (or preferably more) boards to obtain different market perspectives?

I used to read ZH's Turnip board all the time. This used to be an excellent board when it was on SI (and first moved to IB) and there were views from both bull and bear. Somehow, for some reason, it has slowly been taken over by a group of bears full of "Doom and Gloom" that wish to site SAARS, the IRAQ war, consumer debt, the price of oil, the housing bubble, the deficit, planetary alignment, the job market, etc on why the market currently should be having another "Grand Nassacre" and blame Greenspan, the PPT, J6P or certain ANALysts when it does not. Yes, SOME of their reasoning seems to be valid, BUT why they worry/cry so much about what the market "should be doing" and not what the market "IS doing", is actually quite sad.

The change in the market this last 6 months or so has been huge. It would have been a shame to miss the ride and even more of a sin to remain short due to stubborness. Some of their losses must be as great as some of those that remained long after the bubble burst in 2000. The stubborn ones are the current crop of BAGHOLDERS.

My advice to you is to use this board as just another source for information. I personally have been using it as a contrarian indicator. I have been doing that for a while now and it has worked quite well. When you start to see a few more bullish posts on this board (yes there are some) and you start to see a few of the bears here talk bullish, THEN look for a turn in this market. Yes, this market is going to turn but not until most, least expect it.


Good Luck