MM. thx for the link
His discounted cash flow model assumes a 24% market share .
I am betting Canopy will get more then 24% market share ...and once their rapid expansion subsides ( less $ spent on buildout ) ...more cash will drop to the bottom line .
So looking 5yrs out ...take the optimistic expectation of recreational use in Canada with Canopy close to 40% of the market ( economies of scale will push prices down , force consolidation and small growers out of business in the next 2 yrs ) ...and a total market size of up to $5 billion in Canada plus some exports to Germany etc ....using his DCF model except with higher market share of a $5B annual market ...what net present value do you come up with ?
There are always a lot of assumptions in DCF models ...and I am certainly no expert .....but Canopys massive expansion program will really slow down by end of year 2018 ...so that expense will be reduced dramatically.
The real question is .."If we build it will they come " . Know one knows the true demand , but California with a similar population should tell us a lot by July 2018
JMO
Kiwi
PS...always good to invest in your family and home ...actually your best investments
PPS ...suggest you print out that chart you posted on your returns ...date it , frame it and hang it on your office wall
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