Replies to post #145874 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Babylon]

Those points are all very well made, and surely accepted appreciably.

A sincere thank you as always, for all the public contributions you've made regarding the market (a hell of a lot, and incredibly accurate), in all time frames; of which I personally value the interim and longer term trends thereof the most, including but certainly not limited to, the underlying macro viewpoints.

And, of course, equal appreciation, for your legendary patience, that I (unintentional as it may be), and others, might wear out from time to time.

Thanks again.

[market_watcher]

As I have said many times, I don't know of any system that can call every single turn correctly,

For just $199, I can give you one. <g>

Seriously, you're one heck of a great market timer and you have alot of guts to post your thoughts so openly. I'd love to see some research papers be written about your 'turnips', should you ever be so inclined. Of course, that would probably mean the end of them as a forecasting tool, once the knowledge became completely disseminated. But, think of the consulting fees you could earn!

Secular bear markets do not assume that the economy stops growing through the whole period. As a matter of fact, during the secular bear of 1966 to 1982, the economy's average rate of GDP growth was greater than during the following secular bull market from 1982 to 2000.

Great point. When people say, "The market looks ahead", this is what they need to realize. If the market is expecting 5-6% growth and 5% long rates, even if the economy grows at 4% and rates are 5.5%, the market is going to go down. Period. Expectations have to be met or a new set of expectations set market valuations.

[duper_man]

"during the secular bear of 1966 to 1982, the economy's average rate of GDP growth was greater than during the following secular bull market from 1982 to 2000"

Excellent point Zeev. This was precisely why PE's on the Dow got below 10 in 1982 on a trailing basis which marked the beginning of the bull market. Now we have the NDX sporting PE's of 38 using next year's earnings. I think the trailing PE on the NDX has hit triple digits right now which should make this a rally a bear market rally. So from the valuation prespective it should be fully retraced. The timing of it is obviously another matter.