Replies to post #145873 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[carl_p_r2]

How can you say that George has been wrong all year? He called for Asian rallies, particularly Japan. He called for a sharp bond selloff. He called for gold to rally. And, I have never seen a post yet where he said that the US market had completed the final leg up. Instead, he keeps calling for a final blowoff top. So far as I can tell, he has yet to be wrong.

Carl

[market_watcher]

It has nothing to do with valuation or fundamentals --- it is ALL about increased appetite for risk on the part of investors, both institutional and individual.

Do you have any numbers to show this? The latest figure I saw showed mutual fund cash at 4.5%, one of the lowest on record.

If we go higher, it won't be as a result of underinvested mutual funds coming in off the sidelines. As for sideline money in money market funds, I think individuals are a little more concerned about employment at this point, so are probably more likely to want to maintain liquidity by keeping funds in money markets.

I think we're going to get at least a 38.1% retracement of the move from the October lows in the NDX. That would take us down to 1100s. Most likely we get more. That should take about as much time, % wise of the move from October, as it does in points, so if we retrace 1/3, it'll take about 4 months. That will give us plenty of time for an election year rally.