Replies to post #215375 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ENTA—the [calendar 3Q17] royalty should be closer to 11.3 than 10.9 (which is not really that much different) if Mav was really $100MM.

ABBV said 3Q17 Mavyret sales were "almost" $100M, so the actual number could be as much as $5-10M lower. In any case, it's a helluva strong product launch to generate that level of sales in less than 2/3 of a quarter.

[willyw]

Thanks for your commentary.

My interest is the run rate for the end of the year or for the final quarter.

IF mavyret could do 100 million for an incomplete quarter just starting up, where could one see the final weeks ending up?

It looks to me as though total # of US HCV prescriptions are holding up or even increasing. This of course doesn't equate to number of dollars being spent on HCV.

There is no question that market share is shifting.
Abbvie reported that Maviret lead the market in Germany w/ 40% share in....was it 10 weeks?
What is it now? What will it be?
Why would additional EU countries be different?
When Japan starts up?
Where will the USA market share finally settle in?

By rough increments what do people see Mavyret doing in total sales or market share?

Is it possible to agree that G/P (maviret/mavyret) could do 1 billion world wide? 1.25 or 1.5 billion in 2018?

It's impossible since we haven't seen things equalize yet, but the trajectory suggests that one of these is quite possible.

I'm going to guess that the ENTA royalty tiers will come into effect in 2018.

So far as the treatment tail.... how long might earnings last? (I think well into 2020s if little changes.)
If we were to see a duopoly the prices may not drop drastically further. Market share will continue to shift IMHO.
One can look at the lower prices in several ways; they will discourage competition from entering and dissuade HCV pricing from being a target as it was in past years.

I'm curious what ENTA earnings will look like if they were to garner 40% of share in 2018? Not only will they have proceeds of 2 concurrent HCV programs, but I expect them to hit higher tier royalties w/ GP.

In the past Viekira did poorly because it only really did serious volume in G-1 and was what some considered, an inferior product.
This is no longer the case (and one could make a case it is superior given the 8 week treatment, pan-genotypic and lower price), and I think uptake in Germany demonstrates what can happen world wide.