Dan...
LOL -- don't shake my faith in the battle of the COTs. I view the large commercials as "smart money" much the same as the commercials, and I believe that the commercials include the cartel positions built up as they hold gold down. As such, their positions would not necessarily be "smart", just self serving.
I expect the commercial shorts to be burned at some point, but when that will happen is anyone's guess. I am inclined to think it will be relatively soon, but am not willing to bet the ranch on it beforehand.
mlsoft