Misoft> Just a thought, would like some input
The long term longs are in "protection mode", buying puts to protect profits made during the Oct/02, March/03 bottoms. Everyone has noticed the demand for puts even as the VIX has dropped, dropped, dropped. The longs want the cap gains the administration promised at the very low rates, and they don't want to be hammered during the season of weakness, and are working to offload the risk. The big boys tell them, hang on, buy some puts, protect your gains! When the seasonal weakness is over, you can dump into strength!
Sure enough, they'll get the protection during Sept/Oct with only a small decline, but as the JAPAN model suggests, NOVEMBER/03, will kill them off as the first of the OCT/02 holders start to take profits and the market collapses.
The trap door is there. Just short the market, and collect.
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