Replies to post #121324 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

I posted it here

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135247768

The lowest 5-day average is actually 1.368. Not 1.388 as I mentioned earlier.

But yes, the 500k (surprise) increase in O/S coincided with that low of 1.368. At that time the share price wasn't even going down (because the real low was something like 1.27 one or 2 days earlier). But, the 5-day average was still going down fast as you can see.

So that's the theory I offered. So far, so good. Because we haven't seen an increase in the O/S for the past 5 days.

The last couple of increases occured with only 3 trading days in between. So no rise for 5 days, now, is significant IMO. Fingers crossed.

[RealDutch]

Also interesting, when looking at the chart...

In June the company had to issue the first top-up collateral shares. This was followed by a series of press releases aimed at supporting the share price. Which caused a rally to $3.

But then the stock divi delay started kicking in. OUCH. And the stock went down and down again, resulting in more and more top-up collateral shares. Which in turn resulted in a lower share price.

I always say, the chart tells the story.

And if my memory serves me right, I warned them about all these issues. And I didn't even know about the top-up shares.

[RealDutch]

We can even calculate, to some degree, how much of the US loan of $7.7M is left. Assuming all collateral shares have been sold.

Inititially there were A) 1.3M collateral shares.
B) 900k top-up shares as of june 30th
I'm guessing another 1.5M top-up shares since then.

A) sold for an average of $2.50
B) sold for an average of $2
C) sold for an average of $1.50

That's a total of $7.3M

So there should only be $400k left...

Unless, they DIDN'T sell them. And lend the shares out to short sellers. Then, the remaining debt should be 7.7 - (3.7 x 1.4) = $2.5M at todays share price.

So the irony of it all is, it's probably better for us if they HAVE been sold.