You don't even need an actual decline in the value of real estate, just the fact that refinancing dries up or that rates go up will cause consumers o start and pull back. Housing starts are at records (or nearly so). Car production in the US also at near records, if these two "mainstays" of consumer spending are going to decelerate, it will reverberate through the whole system It may take a solid year before that happens, though. The Feds are going to keep their foot to the pedal during next year, and the tax stimulus still need to go through the economy. Of course a fall in RE value surely is going to make the next downturn much more severe than the one we just went through.
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