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mlsoft

08/21/03 3:43 PM

#143180 RE: duper_man #143160

" Why has the stock market not gotten the message? Is it a simple case of "don't fight the fed" and "don't fight the tape"? Is it going to have a delayed reaction?

When I can't make sense of the crap I am being served I usually go with the tape."
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duper...

Until very recently, I have ignored fundamental and technical analysis and concentrated completely on the Greenspan Gambit as he has driven the markets up since the March bottom. I am just taking a gamble based on what I am seeing on the tape that the Gambit is running out of gas here. If wrong, I will return to playing the Gambit or take a vacation, more likely the latter.

As for a "delayed reaction", I most definitely expect that whenever AG loses control of the markets. No matter how much of a recovery may be in store for us here, there is zero chance it will be strong enough to justify current valuations, and I personally doubt there will be a strong recovery at all. I have stated many times here that I think this whole rally began off of an artificial bottom as the Fed stepped in with direct intervention and that the Fed has driven this rally with both liquidity and direct intervention the whole way since the rally began. At some point it will be over (presumably) and reality will assert itself in the markets as folks rush to lock in profits.

Just my opinion, though.

mlsoft