Well I don't have real evidence that this is hapenning. I am only going by what I read myself. If we are in a recovery then demand for capital should increase which inturn should lift interest rates. That part makes sense. But if we are not in a real recovery, how can you explain the rise in log-term treasury rates? Is it fear of the deficit spiraling out of control?
I'll tell you one thing that stinks for me is that in a recovery money comes out of bonds and goes into stocks. But since the sudden ramp in rates in June we have seen little movement in the S&P. The s&p should have ran up and not been stock in a range during this time. That's the part that kept me bearish on stocks in june and july.
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