Replies to post #142227 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

George...

From watching the tape, I continue to believe that the Gambit is essentially over and out of gas, but if the volume remains low I will be wrong -- it is only increased volume selling that will actually signal the end and until that happens, AG is still in charge and the markets will continue to work their way higher, spurred by excess liquidity and program trading.

I believe the very low VIX is an indication of this, as reliance on the Gambit for protection against losses has taken fear out of the players up to this point just as it did with the bond traders before AG pulled the rug from under them. Greenspan will not pull the rug from under the equity markets (they are crucial to the economic recovery he is trying to engender) but if the big players sense hesitancy or a lack of control from him, they will pull the rug from under Greenspan as they rush to lock in profits.

In edit: BTW -- I thought Japan would sell off in the late session tonight, but it just made a new hod with just an hour to go.

mlsoft

[goodluck]

I'm surprised that Eliades didn't add 1982, when the greatest of all bulls began. I think it was around Aug 9 or so then, when the Dow was around 600 or so before taking off. In those days, of course, 30m shares was a lot. Hard to believe.

FWIW, I think the turn will come in Sept, though, not Aug. But not all at once--some scary downs and ups to frustrate everyone but very nimble traders. Then down sharply into Oct. But I don't put numbers on it like Zeev does.