Replies to post #113362 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

The funny thing is that the slow growth model will outperform the fast growth model after some time

Only an idiot CEO from China who has lost all credibility would project 97,000MT by 2019 and think the market cares what he says.

Still much to learn.

[RealDutch]

The only thing wrong with your slow growth model is that SIAF is targeting 14,000MT for this year (down from 20,000MT estimate previously). That has something to do with upgrading the fish farms and preparing them for the Mega Farm. As well as eliminating intercompany sales, perhaps. And switching from finfish to prawns.

If they can get the prawns up and running (small IF, not a big IF) then we should be getting 5,000MT more from the Mega Farm next year as they complete building nr. 3. Probably another 2,000MT from the other fish farms and another 3,000MT from open dam RAS developments. So that gives you a total of 24,000MT for 2018 as opposed to the 16,000MT you are using. Without financing. Although they may still need a little bit of money to complete building 3 at the Mega Farm.

Other than that, well done. The numbers are actually very close to what I projected years ago in the Mega Farm stickie. It doesn't matter how we treat the numbers, we always end up with the same result. Even the slow growth model is faster than the fast growth model now. LOL.

[soroi]

Sino Agro Food is very undervalued and will go several hundred percent over the next few years. I still think you overvalue the production, but i might be wrong. One thing i am afraid of, is that Sino invest more into Tri-Way without getting a higher portion of the company. It would be inasne, but i would not be suprised if it happend. Now that Tri-Way is it's own company, it's time to build cash reserves in the mothercompany. They should some of the cashflow in the mothercompany to pay dividend to the shareholders. This in combination with higher cashresverves will boost the prize of the shares. If they invest directly in Tri-Way, they must get a bigger share of the deal or atleast the other investors should invest the same amount, all else is completly nuts. The bottom line is that with the cashflow they have, they should pay some dividend.

[RealDutch]

Chinese firm says it may match Vietnam’s total shrimp output, 300,000t, by 2025

Here is an older article. But I don't remember ever seeing it before.

This confirms your fast growth model (if they can get financing).

Apparently Tony talked to undercurrentnews a year ago. He mentioned 72,000MT by 2020 (very close to your projection IIRC) and 300,000MT by 2025.

80% will be freshwater prawns and 20% finfish. Wow.

If you hit the link the fist time, you may be able to read the whole article, as I did. But I cannot anymore.

https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2016/07/29/chinese-firm-says-it-may-match-vietnams-total-shrimp-output-300000t-by-2025/