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SI_Shack

08/14/03 12:28 AM

#140467 RE: TREND1 #140464

always find it interesting to find people feeling that
each up move has to have 5 waves.(If that is what you are
saying)


I certainly don't think that Larry. In fact 3 wave moves are far more common since we spend most of our time in corrective waves where 3 is generally the rule. However there are certain times when 5 waves are the rule. One of them is for 'C' waves which is almost certainly what we have out of the March low here (the brother wave to the October launch).

The bottom line is that if the impulse out of that March low was complete, we would have come off the top far stronger in a fresh move down IMO. We have pretty much gone sideways which is very indicative of 4th waves which lends credibilty to the idea of a 5th.

Its really basic TA, a sideways move at the top of a large up move is generally bullish. I let my stops do the thinking beyond that.


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TJ Parker

08/14/03 12:37 AM

#140471 RE: TREND1 #140464

Because form a probability point of view every up move
can not be 5 waves. IMHO.


but it can if virtually anything can be grouped together and called "a wave", with subwave structure and all. me, i think of it more as an after-the-fact descriptive art rather than a predictive tool. but sometimes some truth can come out of that, if the artist is talented. sort of like a poet writing a sonnet or a composer a fugue, constrained to a limited form. or arch crawford and astrology :-)

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Zeev Hed

08/14/03 8:28 AM

#140496 RE: TREND1 #140464

Actually, five waves consist of three upsurges interrupted with two retrenchments, and for some reasons that fits human (and thus human herd) behavior quite well.... not that I am an E-waver or something like that , mind you...