I basically agree with you about the way this will probably trade. Patience is definitely the key at this point in time.
Those who bought the hype are paying for trading on emotions.
If I were in this, my main concern would be the catalyst for the next "run". Most runs in pink land are triggered by promo groups who receive shares from those converting debt. If DV is truly not adding to the os through debt conversion, then what will the catalyst be?
In this particular situation, I see a possibility that those who received the nearly 500M shares that have been passed out within about the past 6 months may still be holding a fair chunk of them, having taken their initial investment off the table by selling the spikes, and so willing to risk the wait for a possibly much larger gain.
The os reduction is strictly a gimmick as far as I'm concerned. She has absolutely no cash with which to purchase shares, so the ONLY way she can reduce the os is to do what Dean (former ceo) did years ago by getting those who hold restricted commons to swap them for preferred B or C shares. I know one person who did that and got burned because Dean wouldn't give him commons to sell later as promised, but the current holders will probably make sure the pref's are convertible on THEIR terms...
Eventually the debt will demand more payments, so shares WILL be issued. Don't be caught holding the bag when that kicks in. It appears that they did just get about $100k from this last issue (245m shares @ .00001 sold at probably .0004 or better) so they may give DV room to try and get the sp up to where they can really cash in big time...
Good luck.
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