You are correct with no word from the company there is no way of knowing anything for sure. I just used some logic of 40 yeats of business experience, but it is in no way meant to be anything more than a guess.
What is not a guess is that whether a refinery is built or not, this is not an easy thing for hanks to accomplish and is in no way a slam dunk. NO ONE SHOULD ASSUME THAT THIS WILL OR WILL NOT HAPPEN. TIME WILL TELL. Just be careful, either way as if it happens you don't want to miss a great opportunity and if it doesn't you don't want to be stung to badly.
Best of luck to you