AP FACT CHECK: Trump wrong about illegal immigration costs
"JimLur, bottom line Hillary's border security plan incorporating technology in remote areas was better than the physical 'wall all the way' promise of Trump's.
Basically, Donald Trump's Border Wall Already Exists"
By JILL COLVINDecember 6, 2018
1 of 2 FILE - In this Nov. 16, 2016, file photo, a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agent walks with suspected immigrants caught entering the country illegally along the Rio Grande in Hidalgo, Texas. While the Trump administration focuses attention on migrant caravans trying to cross the southern U.S. border in California, migration is surging at the opposite end of the border in South Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is spreading misleading numbers about the cost of illegal immigration.
As he tries to pressure Democrats to fund his long-promised southern border wall, Trump is claiming the country loses $250 billion a year on illegal immigration. But it remained unclear Tuesday where Trump had found that number, which is dramatically higher than previous estimates.
A look at his claim:
TRUMP: “Could somebody please explain to the Democrats (we need their votes) that our Country losses (sic) 250 Billion Dollars a year on illegal immigration, not including the terrible drug flow. Top Border Security, including a Wall, is $25 Billion. Pays for itself in two months. Get it done!” — tweet Tuesday.
THE FACTS: Trump’s numbers left even those sympathetic to the president’s position scratching their heads.
“I’m not sure where the president got his numbers,” said Dave Ray, a spokesman for the nonprofit group FAIR, the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which advocates for lower immigration numbers.
Neither the White House nor the Department of Homeland Security responded to questions Tuesday about where the $250 billion estimate had come from.
The Heritage Foundation, for instance, estimated in 2013 that households headed by immigrants living in the U.S. illegally impose a net fiscal burden of around $54.5 billion per year.
And even Trump himself has contradicted the figure. During his 2016 campaign, Trump claimed that illegal immigration cost the country more than $113 billion a year — less than half the number he tweeted Tuesday.
That estimate appeared based on a paper by FAIR, which released an updated report in 2017 that claimed taxpayers “shell out approximately $134.9 billion to cover the costs incurred by the presence of more than 12.5 million illegal aliens, and about 4.2 million citizen children of illegal aliens” at the federal, state and local levels, with “a tax burden of approximately $8,075 per illegal alien family member and a total of $115,894,597,664.”
The $116 million figure included services like health care and education, as well as spending on agencies like U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, minus the $19 billon the group concluded those who are living in the country illegally pay in taxes. But it also included costs associated with the children of those immigrants in its tally, even when they are U.S. citizens. The estimate was criticized for making broad generalizations and other major methodological flaws.
Michelle Mittelstadt of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute said that advocacy groups’ numbers on both sides of the issue are notoriously flawed because “they don’t look at the other side of the ledger.”
“Doing a rigorous analysis that fully captures costs and economic contributions to come up with a net fiscal impact is quite complicated, because it is far easier to assess the cost side of the ledger, particularly uncompensated medical care and education, than it is to capture the full economic activity generated by unauthorized immigrants,” she said via email, pointing to “their roles not just as workers and taxpayers but also as consumers.”
The nonpartisan Pew Research Center also released new estimates last week that there were 10.7 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2016, down from a peak of 12.2 million in 2007 — less than groups like FAIR project.
Trump’s Speech to the Nation: Live Updates and Fact Checks
"JimLur, bottom line Hillary's border security plan incorporating technology in remote areas was better than the physical 'wall all the way' promise of Trump's.
Basically, Donald Trump's Border Wall Already Exists"
President Trump addressed the country on Tuesday, the 18th day of the government shutdown, about border security. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Chuck Schumer delivered the Democratic response.
By The New York Times
Updated 2 hours ago
Video - 2:00 Trump Pushes Border Wall, Democrats Respond As the government shutdown grinds on, President Trump laid out his case for the border wall. Top Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer were not convinced. Jan. 8, 2019 Doug Mills/The New York Times
Here’s what the president said, and how it stacks up against the facts.
“The federal government remains shut down for one reason and one reason only: because Democrats will not fund border security.”
The agency also deemed another 10,600 “inadmissible .. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/ofo-sw-border-inadmissibles ,” which refers to people who seek lawful entry into the United States but are barred from doing so. Together, that would be over 2,000, but “inadmissible” is not the same thing as illegal entry.
— Linda Qiu
“Senator Chuck Schumer, who you will be hearing from later tonight, has repeatedly supported a physical barrier in the past, along with other Democrats.”
“America proudly welcomes millions of lawful immigrants who enrich our society and contribute to our nation, but all Americans are hurt by uncontrolled illegal migration. It strains public resources and drives down jobs and wages.”
This needs context.
Some economists argue that immigrants drive down available jobs and wages for Americans only if they are competing for the same jobs as the domestic work force. In many cases, immigrants — legal or illegal — are seeking jobs that American citizens do not want to do.
Kevin Hassett, the White House’s top economist, argued before joining the Trump administration that immigration spurs economic growth and that the United States should double its intake of immigrants.
— Alan Rappeport
Immigrants who were detained after crossing the border arrived at a bus station in McAllen, Tex., in June. Todd Heisler/The New York Times
“Every week 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90 percent of which floods across our southern border.”
Fentanyl is a narcotic that is used to treat severe pain and is a key contributor the opioid crisis. It is also sometimes mixed with heroin.
But most fentanyl enters the United States from packages mailed directly from China through traditional ports of entry, according to the report, and through Canada from China. A lower-potency, lower-cost grade of fentanyl is also smuggled across the southwest border from Mexico. The fentanyl directly from China is far more lucrative for sellers because of its higher purity. The fentanyl sent through conventional mail packages has proved difficult for law enforcement to detect. Fentanyl coming from Mexico is often hidden in automobile compartments, much like conventional drug smuggling.
Trump is also an expert at lies of omission. Stokes fear of the scare-a-van but the real, actual threats are already here, and they support him. "Officers seized more than 100 firearms, a rocket launcher and several pipe bombs as part of the operation centres in Pasco County, Florida, according to a statement. Authorities also seized “several pounds” of meth and fentanyl, ABC affiliate WFTS-Tampa Bay reported." MS-13? Nope. Aryan Nation. So we can expect a comment from Trump, never. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=144989917
But it should be noted that these criminal convictions covered a range of offenses, including many that were nonviolent. The most common charges were for traffic violations, possessing or selling drugs and immigration offenses like illegal entry.
— Linda Qiu
“The wall will also be paid for, indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico.”
False.
First, the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, has yet to pass in Congress. Any economic benefits from the agreement, if it passes, will most likely come in the form of lower tariffs for American companies or higher wages for American workers. Sign Up for On Politics With Lisa Lerer
A spotlight on the people reshaping our politics. A conversation with voters across the country. And a guiding hand through the endless news cycle, telling you what you really need to know.
This is different from Mr. Trump’s campaign promise that Mexico would finance the wall.
— Alan Rappeport
A Border Patrol agent helped a family after they crossed a section of a border fence in San Diego. Daniel Ochoa De Olza/Associated Press
“The border wall would very quickly pay for itself.”
This needs context.
The president has claimed that the annual cost of illegal drugs in the United States is $500 billion. But a 2015 report by the surgeon general estimated that the annual economic impact of illicit drug use is $193 billion.
Stopping the flow of drugs across the southwest border would not entirely stem the flow of drugs across the United States. Moreover, it is not clear how reducing the cost of drug addiction would finance the wall.
Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader: “No president should pound the table and demand he gets his way or else the government shuts down, hurting millions of Americans who are treated as leverage.”
This needs context.
An estimated 800,000 federal workers are furloughed or working without pay because of the shutdown. While millions of Americans are not being directly harmed, there is a multiplier effect when considering family members of those whose jobs are affected. This also spills into the broader economy, harming business owners whose customers must cut back, tourism and travel.
— Alan Rappeport
Reaction to President Trump’s Speech
Republicans
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, told Fox News’s Sean Hannity that he had never seen Mr. Trump behave in such a presidential manner. And he issued a dire warning to Mr. Trump’s base.
“If we undercut the president, that’s the end of his presidency and the end of our party,” Mr. Graham said.
“As the president clearly laid out tonight, we have a growing humanitarian and security crisis on our southern border,” Representative Kay Granger of Texas, the ranking member on the House Appropriations Committee, said in a statement.
“I stand ready and willing to work with the White House and my friends on both sides of the aisle in the House and Senate to find a legislative solution to border security and reopen the government.”
Democrats
Even before the speech began, Democrats were preparing their rebuttals.
“President Trump is going to use the public airwaves to spread fear and misinformation tonight,” tweeted Representative David Cicilline of Rhode Island, the head of the Democrats’ messaging arm. “I’m going to correct the record.”
In a more lighthearted jab, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, joked that he unsuccessfully tried to get Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii, to “livestream a Trump’s Not Telling The Truth drinking game tonight.”
“Me and him, shot of beer every time Trump says something made up,” Mr. Murphy wrote on Twitter. “He didn’t bite.” (Mr. Schatz, live-tweeting the speech, noted instead: “This is dark.”)
And during the speech, Democrats flooded the internet with their own commentary, frequently reflecting Mr. Trump’s rhetoric back at his administration.
“Donald Trump’s presidency is a national emergency!” wrote Representative Ilhan Omar, Democrat of Minnesota.
But it was perhaps Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the No. 5 House Democrat, who most succinctly summed up his party’s response: “We are not paying a $5 billion ransom note for your medieval border wall,” he tweeted, with a castle emoji. “And nothing you just said will change that cold, hard reality.”
— Emily Cochrane and Catie Edmondson
Important background and updates
Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer delivered the Democratic response.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, discussed their response to Mr. Trump’s address to the nation on Tuesday at the Capitol. Erin Schaff for The New York Times
Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, spoke from the Capitol after Mr. Trump finished his remarks from the Oval Office. The dueling speeches from opposite sides of Pennsylvania Avenue unfolded at the close of Day 18 of a government shutdown over Mr. Trump’s demand for $5.7 billion for a border wall that Democrats have steadfastly opposed.
The Democratic leaders’ decision to select themselves as the message-bearers to counter the president underscores how a partisan power struggle in a new era of divided government is undergirding the discussions over resolving the shutdown, even as the paychecks of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and benefits for millions of Americans hang in the balance.
[Only repair/replacement so far. Nothing new using Trump prototypes.]
Senator Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, also made a public response to Mr. Trump, which was streamed live on social media platforms after Ms. Pelosi and Mr. Schumer concluded their remarks.
The move was reminiscent of how a fractious Republican Party responded to State of the Union addresses when Barack Obama was president: Republican leaders designated a formal response and Tea Party-aligned conservatives chose their own messengers to deliver a different rebuttal.
A dozen Senate Democrats took the floor this evening for a talkathon-style protest calling on Mr. Trump and Senate Republicans to end the government shutdown. Led by Senators Tim Kaine of Virginia and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, it was yet another effort to raise the pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, to allow a vote on legislation that would reopen the government.
Earlier Tuesday, Senate Democrats voted against advancing a package of bipartisan Middle East policy bills slated for consideration this week to further press Republicans. Mr. McConnell said on the Senate floor on Tuesday that he would “not waste time on show votes.” But he is also being pushed by vulnerable members of his own party up for re-election in 2020 to intervene and end the shutdown.
— Catie Edmondson
The decision by major broadcast networks to carry Mr. Trump’s address live in prime time set off a fierce debate.
What is normally an easy decision for network executives — granting airtime to a sitting president to address the nation — led to hours of hand-wringing by journalists and producers wary of giving a platform to a president whose public remarks, particularly on immigration, have been marked by untruths and misleading claims. Liberals wondered why news outlets would defer to a president who, hours earlier, had used Twitter to label journalists “the Enemy of the People,” “the real Opposition Party” and “crazed lunatics.”
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