Replies to post #16703 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[GD]

My estimate: US copaxone market is $3.1B, best case 15% price cut
for sole generic to $2.6B, 45/55 market split, and MNTA share is
$2.6B X 0.45 X 0.5 = $593M/year, very good earnings....

[jbog]

Indi.

A couple of notes. Copax sale in the US are about $3.3 bil. 84% is for the 40mg dose so 40mg sales are running about $2.8 bil year.

If a duopoly is created I would expect a 20% price drop and a 60/40 split between Teva / Sandoz. That would work out that sales would be around $2.25 Bil with Teva getting $1.35 bil and Sandoz the balance of $900 Mil.

The $900 mil would probably net out at about $360 mil for Momenta. Nice

It would probably take about 2 years to get to this position, and because of that, it'll never happen. Competition will do to Copaxone just what it did to Enox., in essence make it worthless.

The only difference being that the original company will retain more sales.

[alternatepatel]

Indigokid, try plugging in few negative factors

1. That $4.4bn sales is WW, while US alone is $3.3bn I guess. Refer the CS sales estimates in my earlier post....US sales of brand+generic copaxone are expected to drop to $1bn by 2020

2. If Teva is to be believed, 70% patients will switch to oral MS meds rather than generic copaxone 40mg. Let's say actual no. is 30%, that too would make a big hole in sales.

3. At least mylan could catch up the competition in 2017. More competition may cause enoxaparin like situation.

4. In case of being sole generic, pricing pressure will be still there to compete with oral drugs and Teva itself.

5. Unpredictable FDA.